Diplomacytoday

Saturday, 31 October 2015

Russian plane crash: investigation begins into cause of A321 crash

Russian and Egyptian investigators have been trying to establish the cause of the crash of a Russian airliner in the Sinai peninsula, after an Islamist group claimed to have “brought it down” on behalf of Islamic State. All 224 passengers, including 17 children, on board the plane died after it crashed 23 minutes into its flight from Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg. Most of those on board were Russian tourists.
A group that said it was speaking on behalf of Isis later posted an online statement claiming: “Soldiers of the caliphate were able to bring down a Russian plane above Sinai province.”
Several radical Islamist groups have called for attacks on Russian targets since it began airstrikes on Isis forces in Syria in late September, but experts were sceptical that militants had weapons able to reach the plane, which was flying at an altitude of more than 30,000ft.
Russia’s transport minister, Maksim Sokolov, said that the claim Isis militants brought down the plane “can’t be considered accurate”. Mohamed Samir, Egypt’s army spokesman, also disputed the claim, saying: “They can put out whatever statements they want but there is no proof at this point that terrorists were responsible for this plane crash. We will know the true reasons when the Civil Aviation Authority in coordination with Russian authorities completes its investigation. But the army sees no authenticity to the claims.”

Somalia threatened by illegal fishermen after west chases away pirates

Five years ago, the isolated outpost of Eyl was Somalia’s most notorious pirate lair. Perched above the crashing waves of the Indian Ocean, the ramshackle town played host to wheeling and dealing pirate kingpins who would roar through the rutted streets in tinted 4x4s as captured ships languished in the shallow waters.
Eyl had become a byword for everything that was wrong with Somalia: a place of anarchy where a civil war and two decades of fighting had destroyed even the most basic institutions of a functioning state, a place where the gun and ransom dollars ruled. The lawless and deadly mayhem was captured in the 2012 film A Hijacking in which a Danish freight vessel was captured by pirates and its captain murdered.
Pirate-hunting western warships belatedly dispatched to the region as part of Nato, US and European Union forces to pacify the pirates and end the hijacking and hostage-taking of western ships and their crews, seem to have won the battle.
Five years later, Eyl is a very different place. The pirates have gone, leaving the outpost to its fate. As with pretty much everywhere else in Somalia, there is an air of neglect with its historic buildings in disrepair. A tiny fort on the beach serves as a reminder that Eyl was once famous for something else – Sayyid Mohammed Abdullah Hassan, the revered 19th-century jihadi and national poet, better known to British forces fighting him in the early 20th century as the Mad Mullah.
Unfortunately for the local population, as the pirates have departed, other aggressors have returned. While the world has shifted its attention elsewhere, marauding flotillas from countries such as Yemen, Iran and South Korea – in flagrant breach of international maritime law – have begun to plunder Somalia’s rich fishing grounds, plunging the local fishermen who hold up the town’s economy into financial ruin.
Overfishing, which devastated the livelihoods of coastal communities a decade ago, is regarded as the principal reason for the initial outbreak of piracy. The waters off Somalia’s 1,880-mile coastline are among the richest fishing grounds in the world, teeming with shark, tuna, sardines, snapper and lobster. The illegal fishermen, their rusty tubs flying flags of convenience and protected by armed Somali brigands from further up the coast, chase off local fishermen who come too close – ramming their boats, shooting at them or sabotaging their gear. It’s a deadly fight that has raged largely unseen and unreported.
Among fishermen on Eyl’s sweeping beach, the mood towards the foreign fishing fleets is bitter. Musa Mahamoud, a lithe and fit-looking 55-year-old, points to the latest provocation – his fishing nets, slashed at sea.
Many Somalis want Nato and EU frigates to do more to tackle the illegal fishermen in the absence of any Somali capability to do so. While the Gulf-funded Puntland Maritime Police Force, based in Bosaso, has notched up some successes against unlicensed boats in the Red Sea, an Eyl detachment is still awaiting speedboats.
“Nato came because of the piracy, but the cause of piracy is the illegal fishing,” says Wa’is, the Eyl official. “If Nato can chase away the pirates, then why not the illegal fishermen?”
It is a view echoed by Abdullahi Jama Saleh, Puntland’s counter-piracy minister, who accuses the west of having “a mandate to catch the little thief, but not the big one”.

Still the refugees are coming, but in Europe the barriers are rising

Thousands of refugees stream across the Croatian border just a few hundred metres from Jurja’s small shop each day, but in her sleepy hillside village the passing strangers are invisible.
“They are taken on trains from the south into Slovenia, we never see them,” she says, as she packs up milk and chocolates in a country where the continent’s refugee crisis has been more a question of travel logistics than resettlement.
The hundreds of thousands of travellers who arrived in Greece without documents since the start of this year almost all want to travel north to countries they believe offer a better chance of safety and a new life. So officials in countries along the way have focused on helping them travel as quickly and safely as possible, providing food, shelter, medical help and transport before handing them across borders towards their final destination.

Russia’s day of mourning for 224 dead in Sinai air crash

Soon after the St Petersburg-bound airliner went down in Egypt on Saturday, Russians began reposting social media photographs of happy beachgoers that had suddenly taken on tragic new meaning.
One of them showed Viktoria Sevryukova, 24, who had worked at a St Petersburg restaurant chain, posing in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. Her name was on the list of 224 people who were lost with the plane. Several of her friends reposted the photo with messages of disbelief and grief.
Sevryukova’s friend, Yevgenia Beryozina, told the Observer that she felt “emptiness” and couldn’t believe what had happened. “She was my best friend. She had waited for this trip like I don’t know what,” Beryozina said. “And now she’s gone. Just like that, she’s gone.”
The Kogalymavia Airbus A321 had been carrying holidaymakers back from the Red Sea resort when it crashed on the Sinai peninsula. It was flying at 31,000ft before air traffic control lost contact with it 23 minutes after takeoff. At least 150 bodies had been recovered, including those of the 17 children on board. Both the Russian and Egyptian authorities said there were no survivors.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, expressed his deepest condolences to passengers’ relatives and declared a day of mourning for those killed, the Kremlin press service said.
Relatives gathered at a hotel near Pulkovo airport in St Petersburg. Yulia Zaitseva said her friends, newlyweds Elena Rodina and Alexander Krotov, were on board. “We were friends for 20 years,” she told AP at the hotel. “To lose such a friend is like having your hand cut off.” She said Rodina’s parents felt “like their lives are over”.
Ella Smirnova, 25, said she was due to meet her parents who were on the flight. “I spoke to them last on the phone when they were already on the plane, and then I heard the news. I will keep hoping until the end that they are alive, but perhaps I will never see them again,” she said.
Russian investigators and emergency workers were flying to the crash site, where Egyptian teams were already working, and searched the offices of Kogalymavia and the St Petersburg-based Brisco tour company that had contracted the flight. Putin ordered prime minister Dmitry Medvedev to create a special commission on the disaster.
Kogalymavia planes have been involved in accidents before, including a Tu-154 that caught fire on the runway in Surgut, killing three and injuring 43. The Russian state transport regulator found safety violations during an inspection of Kogalymavia in 2014, but the airline remedied the discrepancies, Interfax news agency reported.
The crash is the latest in a long line of Russian air tragedies. Russia became the most dangerous country for air travel in 2011 after several disastrous crashes, including one that claimed the lives of most of the Yaroslavl Lokomotiv hockey team. Many of the incidents involved ageing aircraft and were blamed on mechanical breakdowns or pilot error. The Russian authorities later began trying to reduce the number of small airlines, which often employ older planes and can lack the maintenance and staffing capabilities of larger companies, in a bid to improve safety.

Stability and security dominate Turkish election debates

Earlier this month, Imran Kurt, a 22-year-old university student and activist, was preparing to take part in a peace rally in Ankara when an explosion sent a tremor through the group. Seconds later, another hit.
“When I raised my head, I saw bodies on the floor,” says Kurt. “Our bodies were covered in blood and pieces of flesh and we ran away for 50 metres. Then I ran back to look for my mother who was with me.” She was alive, inspecting the bodies around her, looking to see if her son was among those who perished. “When she saw me she started crying,” he says.
On the eve of snap elections taking place on Sunday, banners throughout Istanbul are emblazoned with the professorial face of the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, and the slogan istikrar (stability). Yet the last few months of rule by the Justice and Development party (AKP) have been anything but stable, with the country suffering bouts of violence and renewed tensions with Kurdish insurgents that could spell more civil conflict in coming months.
Security has emerged as a key flashpoint in the elections, with AKP officials arguing a vote for them means a vote for stability and security. Their opponents, on the other hand, argue that the AKP has failed to protect the country and the opposition from terrorism and that militancy in the country has been nourished by its policy of backing rebels in neighbouring Syria and offering them refuge while failing to adequately defend the border.
“This is precisely the dilemma of this election,” says Ahmet Hakan, a television host and prominent columnist in the mainstream daily Hurriyet.
Parliamentary elections in June whittled away at the AKP’s majority, forcing it to enter negotiations to form a coalition government with its opponents, but the failure of the talks contributed to political uncertainty. In August, the Turkish president and AKP founder, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, called snap elections.
Meanwhile, a series of terrorist attacks have targeted the opposition – a bombing in Diyarbakir struck at a rally for supporters of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic party (HDP) in June, moments before the charismatic party leader Selahattin Demirtas was scheduled to speak. A suicide bombing against a gathering of mostly Kurdish activists in the border town of Suruç prompted small-scale violence and, in turn, a crackdown against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a campaign that risked inflaming the Kurdish insurgency and increasing violence in the country’s east.
And then came the double suicide bombing in Ankara on 10 October, which Kurt and his mother survived but which killed dozens of others. It was the worst terrorist attack in Turkey’s history. “I can’t say I’m good, psychologically,” says Kurt. “Even on social media I still see my comrades who died and I see them when I listen to music or when I read a poem.”
Turkish experts say the formation of a coalition government in the aftermath of Sunday’s elections could help reduce tensions and polarisation in the country. But some worry that the AKP may seek yet another election if they believe a single-party government is within reach.

“Security is the most urgent issue now, it feeds him [Erdogan],” says Can Dundar, editor-in-chief of the dissident newspaper Cumhuriyet. “People ask for an authority to control the chaos. I guess he trusts that psychology. He waits for people to say ‘come and save us’. Another single party government would be a disaster.”
Observers say a third round of elections would be destabilising for the country’s security and economy, extending political uncertainty. Turkey has been through an extended election cycle since local elections in March 2014, which were followed by a presidential election in August, then the first parliamentary polls in June this year.

AKP supporters charge that the instability is a consequence of the prospect that the party, which bills itself as being strong on counter-terrorism, may lose its dominance over government. They say the attacks that have occurred are plots aimed at embarrassing the party and striking at its popularity.
“I think these attacks aim to prevent AKP from coming to power as a one-party government again,” says Fatima, a 42-year-old longtime party volunteer at an election tent in Istanbul. “It is a trap against us.”
Kurt, however, says he will vote for the HDP and blames the government for the instability in the country. Many members of the opposition have accused the government of failing to protect the demonstrators at the peace rally and police of assaulting those who came to help the wounded.
“There was no stability in Turkey,” he says. “They have been inside the state for 13 years, strengthening their own position. Their only aim is to hold on to power. That is their stability.”

Russian plane crash: investigation into cause begins – as it happened

All 224 on board, including 17 children were killed, when a Metrojet flight from Sharm el-Sheikh bound for St Petersburg when the Airbus A321 crashed into the Sinai desert.
Images of the wreckage show that the plane was almost completely destroyed.
The cause of the crash remains unknown and claims of responsibility from Islamic State have been dismissed by Russian authorities.
Families of the passengers have gathered at St Petersburg airport as bodies begin to arrive back in Russia.

Mokhtar Awad, an analyst with the Center for American Progress, tells the Guardian that the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility is quite vague.

“It doesn’t state how they were able to ‘down’ the plane allegedly. Even the most sophisticated of portable surface-to-air missiles cannot reach that high an altitude and are only a threat during periods of take-off or landing, but the plane had already climbed to its target altitude (from what we know thus far) when it began to likely experience technical failures.
The local affiliate, Wilayat Sinai, has been under some pressure over the past few months and may have jumped the gun on taking credit. Although there isn’t a precedent for such a spectacular lie about something they claim to have done, Islamic State itself has recently been embellishing more and more. For instance it claimed that the recent prison raid by Kurdish and US special forces were a total failure, when in fact video evidence surfaced showed them freeing the hostages. So this may be an instance of the rooster taking credit for the dawn.”

Russian aviation regulator Rosaviatsia said it has not yet found any reason to blame the crash of the Russian airliner in Egypt on a technical failure, an error by the crew or external actions, RIA Novosti reports.

Until there is reliable evidence about the circumstances of what happened, there is no sense in putting forward and discussing any versions.

The Guardian’s reporter in Cairo Jahd Khalil analyses the burgeoning relationship between Russia and Egypt.

Tourists enjoy the beach in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images

Russians make up 19.7% of tourist arrivals to Egypt, the largest of any single country and 1.7 million were forecast to arrive in 2015 alone.
The Egyptian government has cancelled visa costs for Russian tourists to encourage more visitors, and there is also a currency deal between Russia and Egypt being discussed.
Since President Sisi took power, relations between Russia and Egypt have grown closer and been lauded in Egyptian press.
Biltaeral agreements included developing nuclear power in Egypt and a $3.5 billion arms deal, as Egypt seeks to diversify its arms suppliers beyond the United States.
Egypt also welcomed Russia’s latest intervention in Syria to support even as its Gulf allies, which have kept the Egyptian economy afloat with aid, vehemently opposed the Russian intervention.

Islamic State claim 'not accurate' - Russia

Russia’s transport minister Maksim Sokolov has said that the claim Islamic State militants brought down the plane “can’t be considered accurate”.

Now in various media there is assorted information that the Russian [plane]... was supposedly shot down by an anti-aircraft missile, fired by terrorists.
This information can’t be considered accurate.

Shadi Bushra, reporting for the Guardian in Cairo, has also spoken to Mohamed Samir, Egypt’s army spokesman, who also refuted the claim.

They can put out whatever statements they want but there is no proof at this point that terrorists were responsible for this plane crash.
We will know the true reasons when the civil aviation authority in coordination with Russian authorities completes its investigation.
But the army sees no authenticity to their claims or their video.

Egypt’s prosecutor general has agreed to allow a Russian government agency to participate in investigating what caused the Russian passenger plane to crash, according to state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram.
The North Sinai prosecution office has reportedly summoned air and ground traffic control officials for questioning over the incident, and ordered a technical team from the Civil Aviation Ministry to analyse the contents of the plane’s black box.
Meanwhile, Russian investigators are searching the Moscow offices of Metrojet, the company that chartered the plane.
The Investigative Committee is questioning both Metrojet employees and also the St Petersburg-based Brisco tour agency that had contracted for the flight from the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg, said spokesman Vladimir Markin.

This is the statement from a group claiming to be speaking on behalf of Islamic State, posted on their affiliate site, translated by our correspondent in Cairo, Jahd Khalil. It offers no evidence that the group brought down the plane, apart from their word.

Breaking: Downing of Russian airplane, killing of more than 220 Russian crusaders on board.
Soldiers of the Caliphate were able to bring down a Russian plane above Sinai Province with at least 220 Russian crusaders aboard.
They were all killed, praise be to God. O Russians, you and your allies take note that you are not safe in Muslims lands or their skies.
The killing of dozens daily in Syria with bombs from your planes will bring woe to you. Just as you are killing others, you too will be killed, God willing.

US officials: troops to only fight Isis, Russia risks fueling Syrian quagmire

Secretary of State John Kerry said on Saturday American special operations troops being sent to Syria would only fight Islamic State militants and would not become involved in the country’s long-running civil war. As he did so, US-backed rebels attacked Isis in the north-east of the country.
Deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken, meanwhile, told a policy conference in Bahrain Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian conflict would have the unintended consequences of drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region.
Russia began airstrikes a month ago, changing the balance of forces in the war in favour of President Bashar al-Assad and against rebel groups that include both jihadists and non-militants backed by the West, Turkey and Gulf countries.
In Syria, a newly formed US-backed rebel alliance launched an offensive against Isis in the north-eastern province of Hasaka. It was the first declared operation by the Democratic Forces of Syria, which joins a US-backed Kurdish militia and several Syrian Arab rebel groups, since it announced its formation earlier this month.
Fighting in Hasaka had begun after midnight, a spokesman for the alliance said. A group monitoring the war reported fighting and coalition air strikes in the area. A video posted earlier on YouTube announced the offensive in southern Hasaka, and showed several dozen men in fatigues standing outdoors with yellow flags and banners carrying the name of the Democratic Forces of Syria in Arabic and Kurdish.
The campaign would “continue until all occupied areas in Hasaka are freed from Daesh,” a spokesman for the alliance’s general command said in the video, using an Arabic name for Isis. He urged residents to stay away from Isis-controlled areas of Hasaka. Another spokesman later said alliance forces had already attacked Islamic State fighters.