Western diplomats have said they expect Russia to put sustained pressure on the Syrian president to accept a loss of power as part of negotiations to end the five-year civil war.
The diplomats, who admitted being blindsided by Vladimir Putin’s decision to withdraw the bulk of Russian troops that have been bombing rebel forces for the past six months, said they were confident he intended to display Russia’s new-found leverage in Syria by putting pressure on Bashar al-Assad to compromise.
“Assad can shape the future constitution, but Russia knows he has no choice but to stand aside at some point, otherwise there will be stalemate,” a senior diplomat at the peace talks in Geneva told the Guardian on Tuesday.
“The Russians have strengthened Assad’s position enough so he can come to the negotiating table closer to a state of equilibrium, but they want this war to come to an end. They are not inextricably bound up with him, so long as they maintain their influence.”
In what could be seen as a symbol of Putin’s dominance, the US secretary of state, John Kerry, will travel to Moscow next week to talk to the president about his approach to political transition in Syria.
Meanwhile, Russia has sent Vitaly Naumkin, a distinguished academic, to help the United Nations in the peace talks that have just started in Geneva. Naumkin recently said neither side in the conflict could win and “reconciliation is the only solution”. The western assessment, based on diplomatic discussions, came as some Russian forces began returning to Moscow on Tuesday. However fighter jets were reported to still be carrying out intense raids in support of Syrian government forces as they advanced towards the city of Palmyra.
The Russian defence minister confirmed its newly constructed airbase, air radar system and some of its weaponry would be maintained in Syria. He said Russia would be entitled to continue air campaigns against terrorists, but it is not clear if it intends to target Islamic State, or some of the groups associated with the High Negotiating Committee (HNC), the umbrella body representing the rebel forces in Geneva.
In a phone call with Putin on Monday night, Barack Obama urged Russia to avoid a rise in airstrikes, arguing that breaches of the two-week-old ceasefire remain the single biggest threat to the peace talks, currently in their second day.
No comments:
Post a Comment