The Guardian view on Russia’s Syria U-turn: no kind of victory

Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russia would start pulling out “the main part” of its military forces from Syria has startled the world. Even the US administration was apparently left struggling to make sense ofRussia’s about-turn, just six months after it rattled western policymakers by launching its military intervention. It looked, yet again, as if Washington had been caught out by Russia’s president in a crisis which has repeatedly tested US credibility. But the deeper question is what lies behind Mr Putin’s move, and how it may affect events.

Speculation inevitably plays a part in assessing the impact of Russia’s sudden move in a war that has caused over 300,000 deaths and of which, despite the recent two-week lull in fighting, there is as yet no end in sight. One hope among western diplomats is that Mr Putin will drop President Bashar-al-Assad, now that he has demonstrated Russian power in the Middle East. This would go a long way in forwarding peace talks, because Mr Assad’s fate has been such a stumbling block. But many signs point the other way. Russian intervention has consolidated and entrenched Mr Assad, and has put an end to the military setbacks suffered by the Syrian regime in 2015. So Russia can now capitalise on that by appearing to step back. It has already done enough to take the upper hand on what may lie ahead for Syria.

It was no coincidence that Mr Putin made his announcement as diplomatic talks were due to restart in Geneva. This allows Russia to appear dedicated to ending the war by becoming the first to start pulling forces out of Syria, rather that putting more in. It is precisely because perceptions have too often counted for more than realities that this appearance should be treated with caution.

Russia’s Su-34 fighter planes flew out of the warzone on Tuesday in a blaze of publicity. But it remains to be seen how consistent and wide-ranging this pull-back will be. Reports of Russian air raids continued on Tuesday. And Russia has made clear it will keep the military installations it has built up on Syria’s coast. This means it can restart air operations whenever it chooses to. In that respect, Mr Putin has kept his options wide open.