Is it safe to go on holiday to Turkey?

In previous years, if there was one thing that could put you off having a summer holiday in Turkey, it was the crowds. People tell you that spring or autumn are the best times to go – the temperature is soothingly balmy, and you can find a spot at the beach/ancient ruins/restaurant without too much trouble. But this year, big crowds are unlikely to be a problem at any time.

The country has been rocked by terrorist attacks over the past 12 months, with several particularly deadly bombings this year alone, and unsurprisingly tourism is being affected. According to one survey, visitor arrivals in February were more than 10% down on the same time last year. Summer is looking worse. Thomas Cook says there has been a “marked shift in demand, with significantly lower bookings” to Turkey. The travel company Tui reported a 40% drop in summer holiday bookings. According to the market research company GfK, overall there has been a 32% drop in the number of summer bookings to Turkey (last year, bookings to the country grew 11%). Cruise liners have cancelled stops in Turkey, tour operators have cut capacity and some, such as Mark Warner, have pulled out of the country altogether. Suicide bombers targeted the capital Ankara in February and March – the attacks were claimed by TAK, a Kurdish nationalist group. Two attacks on Istanbul (which tourists are more likely to visit) in January and March were blamed on Islamic State. The Foreign Office advises against travel to the south-east of the country, near the borders with Iraq and Syria. It says “further attacks are likely”, and acknowledges tourists could be targets, but it advises only vigilance, not staying away, for the rest of the country.

“I wouldn’t advise people to stay away, but I would advise them to make themselves aware of the reality of the threat,” says Henry Wilkinson, the head of intelligence and analysis at the Risk Advisory Group. In the past 12 months, his company has recorded 258 terrorist attacks in Turkey, “but the vast majority have occurred in the south-eastern provinces where there is an active PKK [outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party] insurgency and cross-border activity. So far, we haven’t seen tourist resorts targeted as we did in 2006.” Between June and August 2006, five bomb attacks on tourist resorts in south-western Turkey killed seven people.

An Isis-inspired attack on tourists at the beach, similar to the atrocity in Tunisia last year, in which 38 people died, is “certainly possible”, he says. “Islamic State has demonstrated that it is willing to target tourist resorts. It recognises that tourism is a particularly vulnerable point in the economy.”

Still, it is worth remembering that more than 2.5 million Britons visit Turkey every year. Although the bombings in Istanbul were attempts to hit public spaces, where foreigners were likely to be present, Wilkinson says: “You would have much greater cause for concern [for your safety] if you were in the security forces or military, or were in politics.” As a tourist, he says, “the likelihood of being caught up in an attack is relatively low”.