Rebel groups and opposition activists have reacted with cautious optimism to news of a major withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, saying the Kremlin’s move would ease the pressure on the opposition and strengthen the prospects for peace talks.
But Moscow signalled it would remain a key player in the embattled country, apparently launching a major air offensive against Islamic State forces near the historic city of Palmyra on Tuesday, paving the way for troops loyal to the government of Bashar al-Assad to score incremental advances against the militants.
“People are exhausted by five years of war,” said Mohamad al-Ibrahim, an activist in the town of Maarat al-Numan in rebel-held Idlib, which bore the brunt of much of Russia’s air campaign. “They just want a ray of hope for a solution and the ceasefire is a small step.” Calm descended across much of the rebel-held territory in the country as the peace talks in Geneva, brokered by the US and Russia, got under way. Rebel factions were scheduled to meet on Wednesday in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in an effort to present a united front on the talks.
Rebels are mulling their next move – there is little clarity on whether the tempo of Russian attacks would resume if the ceasefire were broken, risking the collapse of the peace negotiations and a surge in violence if the opposition attempted offensives on the ground.
Even if government troops on the frontlines are more vulnerable as a result of the Russian withdrawal, there is no guarantee that Moscow would not come to Assad’s aid again.
The result, for now, appears to be a stalemate that has frozen the situation on the ground, at least temporarily.
“Until now the Russian position is unclear,” said an activist close to the powerful Ahrar al-Sham Islamist rebel group. “What has been withdrawn is a small amount of Russian troops, and there is definitely something planned for the aftermath.”
Syrian government forces advanced on Tuesday towards Palmyra under “heavy Russian air cover”, according to Al-Manar – a television station belonging toHezbollah, which is fighting alongside the Syrian president’s regime.
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