Monday 28 September 2015

Cameron must include Assad in any strategy to defeat Isis in Syria

These releases helped to change the complexion of the Syrian rebellion from one with largely democratic aims, to one dominated by jihadists. That transformation has enabled Assad to refocus the narrative from his vicious rule to his claimed indispensability in the fight against Isis.
Once Isis became a significant force following its takeover of Raqqa in 2013, Assad’s military largely avoided confronting it. Conflict between the two has increased since the summer of 2014, but for many critical months, Assad largely left Isis alone, allowing it to consolidate its “caliphate”. Instead, Assad focused his firepower on other elements of the armed opposition.
Most important, Assad’s atrocities have been a recruitment bonanza for Isis and other extremist groups. The Syrian war has been so extraordinarily ugly because Assad has chosen to fight it not by simply targeting opposing combatants – the essence of wars fought in compliance with the Geneva Conventions – but by conducting indiscriminate attacks against civilians in opposition-held territory. His tools have ranged from denying civilians food and medical care to his notorious barrel bombs. The result has been the utter devastation of broad swaths of Ghouta, Aleppo, Idlib, Daraa and other areas held by the opposition. This warfare against civilians is a central reason for the flight of Syrian refugees, since it means that many can find no safe place within their country.
The evident rationale behind Assad’s strategy of war crimes has been to depopulate opposition-held areas, and to signal to other Syrians that they too will be attacked if the opposition prevails in their neighbourhoods. The chaos and vacuum left behind made it easier for Isis and other extremist groups to recruit fighters by arguing that they alone are actively opposing these mass atrocities. The hatred for Assad was evident in the difficulty the United States had trying to recruit people to fight only Isis.

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