Syria’s war is facing a critical few days as refugees stream from Aleppo towards the Turkish border and Russian airstrikes help Bashar al-Assad’s forces advance, with diplomatic moves still showing no sign of concrete measures to relieve the suffering of ordinary people.
International hand-wringing has failed to trigger decisive action with Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, making clear her concern on Monday. “We have been ... not just appalled but horrified by what has been caused in the way of human suffering for tens of thousands of people by bombing – primarily from the Russian side,” she said after meeting Turkey’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu in Ankara.
Violence on the ground was also the backdrop to last week’s short-lived Geneva peace talks and the London Syria donor conference, where billions of dollars were pledged to pay for the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. Yet neither showed any sign that there was light at the end of the tunnel.
Later this week the International Syrian Support Group, comprising the key countries trying to find a way out of the conflict, is due to meet again – this time in Munich. It may be its last chance to come up with a credible political solution to end the five-year war, diplomats say.
Last September, when Vladimir Putin sent his air force to Syria and claimed to be targeting Isis, western governments were unsure what his plan was. It is now brutally clear that Russia – along with fighters from Hezbollah and Iran – has tipped the balance in Assad’s favour. Rebels are losing ground. The mood in Damascus is defiant again.
In a fast-moving situation, one dramatic element masks others: the current focus on the north means less attention is being paid to the crisis in Deraa in southern Syria – also the scene of massive refugee flows following regime gains aided by Moscow.
“The trajectory for the rebels is downwards, and the downward slope is increasingly steep,” warned Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, one of many critics who believe the US is naive about Russian intentions.
Syrian opposition supporters smell treachery. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is vilified for continuing to insist that only negotiations can end the conflict – while simultaneously sidestepping the central question of Assad’s future – in line with Putin’s position.
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