Hopes of a speedy end to the agony of Syria’s people are sadly misplaced

What will things look like when the bombing stops is a question asked by both policy-makers and the general public shocked by the devastation of Syria. But why assume it will stop any time soon?

The ceasefire deal agreed last week was always flimsy and problematic. Its many flaws had been picked over in detail even before President Bashar al-Assad in effect buried it, by giving a rare interview to announce his determination to retake the entire country. Analysts pointed out that the warring parties were not at the negotiating table, only their backers. There is an inexplicable weeks-long delay in implementation, and above all there is a giant hole at the heart of it which means hostilities will continue. Air strikes on “terrorists” will not stop and there is no monitoring or clear agreement about who is and who is not a terrorist.

None of these defects was hidden, yet none of them prevented a cautious welcome for the plan when it was unveiled, perhaps because of the hope it offered that an end to years of bloodshed might be possible, even within reach. “Research shows that people are over-optimistic when they go to war in the first place, and over-confident about the ability to reach peace,” said Dominic Johnson, a professor of international relations at Oxford and an expert in how popular misconceptions influence conflicts.

“I don’t see any short-term solutions [in Syria],” he adds. “It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, but I don’t think anyone is committed enough to make the massive investments to try to end it quickly” The grim study of past wars suggests that, while the Syrian war may feel interminable, in fact it has been relatively short, particularly for a conflict that has sucked in wealthy foreign powers.

“The average civil war lasts about seven years, and we are five years in,” says Monica Toft, a professor of public policy at Oxford who studies wars and violence. “But when we talk about averages, there are plenty of outliers, and they tend to be ones where you have outsiders interested.”

Academics are still arguing about whether foreign powers draw out wars by getting involved, or whether they are more likely to get caught up in already intractable conflicts, she said. But the link itself is not in dispute, and is a grim omen.

“Assad is fighting for his life; people forget that. And it is in a region with neighbours who have real vested interests for how that conflict ends,” Toft says. “I’m not optimistic that it’s going to end any time soon.”