In the fog of Syria’s war, one thing appears clear: Russia is running rings around the US and its allies, militarily and diplomatically. While Washington clings to hopes of a negotiated settlement, Vladimir Putin is changing facts on the ground, just like he did in Ukraine in 2014.
It’s Putin’s game. And, so far, he’s winning.
When Russia’s president piled into the conflict last autumn in support of Bashar al-Assad, Barack Obama said a “quagmire” awaited him. The opposite has happened.
Russia’s military campaign has gradually taken off. Its air power has given Assad’s forces the edge. An effective coalition with Iranian, Lebanese and Iraq Shia militias has been forged on the ground.
A lightening offensive this month in the area around Aleppo in the north took anti-Assad rebels by surprise, severing a vital supply route to the city. More than 500 people have been killed by Russian airstrikes and 50,000 have fled towards the Turkish border, exacerbating the refugee crisis.
A bullish Putin plainly believes that given time, he can score decisive victories, ensuring the regime’s survival. In the meantime, his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, keeps up the appearance of genuine diplomatic engagement.
Lavrov was to hold talks with his US counterpart, John Kerry, in Munich on Thursday in a bid to keep the Geneva peace process alive. But Kerry – handicapped by Obama’s reluctance to increase US military involvement, lacking a credible alternative strategy and under fire from allies – is outgunned. His predicament has brought warnings in Washington of a looming “uncontrollable disaster”.
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