Acessation of hostilities in Syria was agreed at the Munich security conference on Friday, coming hot on the heels of the release of a new report that estimates that 11.5% of the Syrian population has either been killed or injured as a result of the conflict. Both coincide with a major hike in the humanitarian catastrophes in Syria as tens of thousands of civilians flee from Russia’s continued airstrikes on Aleppo.
Crucially, the cessation of hostilities agreement does not bind Russia to halt its air campaign because Russia continues to insist that the campaign is targeting “terrorists”, which is permissible in the agreement. The problem is that in reality, over 80% of Russia’s strikes have been against the Syrian rebels and not groups such as Islamic State, and have caused massive civilian losses. That the Syrian conflict is one of the bloodiest wars in the modern history of the Middle East is an uncontested fact. But in addition to the importance of not becoming desensitised to the human cost of the conflict, the international community should think seriously about how the war is changing the face ofSyria, and what this means for the world.
If the conflict continues as it is today – and it is far from certain that the Munich agreement can be implemented – Syria will head to a future of extremism and long-term unrest that will have global repercussions.
Everyone in Syria is affected by the fighting. The loss of lives and livelihoods is contributing to rising grievances among Syrians – against the Bashar al-Assadregime that is brutally killing its citizens, the international community that is indirectly allowing the conflict to persist through sterile diplomacy, the foreign actors whose self-interest is fuelling the conflict – but above all else, against one another.
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