If a bomb did indeed bring down the Russian airliner over the Sinai, Islamic State
clearly tops a shortlist of culprits. Setting aside for a moment the
fact that the group has claimed three times that it caused the crash,
there are no other known jihadist groups operating in Egypt with the
means or reach to have done this.
Suspicion has zeroed in on the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh from where the doomed plane departed. In addition to the ballistics tests and analysis of phone and internet traffic, intensive work is being done on airport staff, in particular baggage handlers and anyone else who had access to the 737 in the hours before its final flight. A growing consensus among regional diplomats and intelligence officers is that placing a bomb on board would almost certainly have required help from inside the airport.
The belief among diplomats is that only the local affiliate of Isis, which was formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, would be able to penetrate Sharm, which lies on the outer edge of its area of operations.
The group claimed the suspected attack within two hours of the plane crashing. It did so again three days later, and on Wednesday it released an audio tape again claiming credit and taunting that it would only reveal how it did it when it wants to. Three such claims are unusual for a group that has used disinformation in the past but has not gone to such lengths to put its name to an attack.
For three years from late 2011, the group focused its attention on Egyptian security forces and institutions of state far to the west. It fought a withering insurgency throughout that time, slowly building support in disparate parts of the Sinai.
In early 2014, two senior members travelled to Syria and then Iraq to pledge allegiance to the Isis leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. From November that year they were incorporated into the global jihadi group.
Isis has made clear its intent to attack civilian airliners, specifically mentioning British and US planes in its propaganda magazine. Its threats against Russian interests have until now been restrained, despite Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian war two months ago.
A second group, al-Mourabitoun, formed by an Egyptian ex-military special forces officer, Hisham Ashmawy, who broke away from Isis in the summer, is also believed to have been responsible for attacks against security forces but is less organised than Isis and has a much smaller support base.
Al-Qaida groups in the region, such as AQAP in Yemen, have also tried to attack airliners in the past, successfully smuggling a bomb concealed in a printer on to a US-bound plane in 2010. The bomb was defused during a stopover at East Midlands airport.
Both AQAP and and the Egyptian Isis affiliate are homegrown outfits that draw strength from their local connections. Isis has taken pains to set up precisely such an association as it now has with the jihadists of the Sinai.
Suspicion has zeroed in on the airport in Sharm el-Sheikh from where the doomed plane departed. In addition to the ballistics tests and analysis of phone and internet traffic, intensive work is being done on airport staff, in particular baggage handlers and anyone else who had access to the 737 in the hours before its final flight. A growing consensus among regional diplomats and intelligence officers is that placing a bomb on board would almost certainly have required help from inside the airport.
The belief among diplomats is that only the local affiliate of Isis, which was formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, would be able to penetrate Sharm, which lies on the outer edge of its area of operations.
The group claimed the suspected attack within two hours of the plane crashing. It did so again three days later, and on Wednesday it released an audio tape again claiming credit and taunting that it would only reveal how it did it when it wants to. Three such claims are unusual for a group that has used disinformation in the past but has not gone to such lengths to put its name to an attack.
For three years from late 2011, the group focused its attention on Egyptian security forces and institutions of state far to the west. It fought a withering insurgency throughout that time, slowly building support in disparate parts of the Sinai.
In early 2014, two senior members travelled to Syria and then Iraq to pledge allegiance to the Isis leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. From November that year they were incorporated into the global jihadi group.
Isis has made clear its intent to attack civilian airliners, specifically mentioning British and US planes in its propaganda magazine. Its threats against Russian interests have until now been restrained, despite Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian war two months ago.
A second group, al-Mourabitoun, formed by an Egyptian ex-military special forces officer, Hisham Ashmawy, who broke away from Isis in the summer, is also believed to have been responsible for attacks against security forces but is less organised than Isis and has a much smaller support base.
Al-Qaida groups in the region, such as AQAP in Yemen, have also tried to attack airliners in the past, successfully smuggling a bomb concealed in a printer on to a US-bound plane in 2010. The bomb was defused during a stopover at East Midlands airport.
Both AQAP and and the Egyptian Isis affiliate are homegrown outfits that draw strength from their local connections. Isis has taken pains to set up precisely such an association as it now has with the jihadists of the Sinai.
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