Just in the last two months, over 100,000 people have fled to Europe. That’s already three times more than during the same period last year. Winter temperatures in the Mediterranean have not slowed the exodus, nor have measures taken by some EU member states aimed at discouraging arrivals, such as confiscating money from refugees or raising barbed wire. The greatest push factor is the Syrian war, recently heightened with the assault on Aleppo, which stubbornly grinds on. Thousands of families continue to find it preferable to attempt deadly crossings across Aegean waters, rather than to struggle in Turkeyor be exposed to relentless air raids and sieges. Whatever small hopes may rest on the “cessation of hostilities” deadline in Syria – set for this Saturday – it is unlikely to stem the migration flows in the near future. Against this backdrop, the pressing need in Europe is for unity. But in meeting the challenge, every pressure seems to be pushing the other way.
European divisions are growing, not being reduced. Athens on Thursday recalled its ambassador from Vienna, in effect accusing Austria of teaming up with other countries in the region to – in the words of the Greek migration minister – transform Greece into “Europe’s Lebanon”. The comparison was meant to highlight the possibility that, with borders closing to its north on the migrant trail, Greece could end up becoming a bottleneck for refugees on Europe’s south-eastern flank. If Greece were to welcome refugees in the same proportions that Lebanon has reached in recent years (one in five people in the country), it would be looking at an inflow of 2.2 million people. It is a far-fetched scenario, at this stage.
But there is no disputing that the Balkan equation has become even more complex than it was, and that Greece has genuine reasons to be concerned. On Wednesday, ministers from Austria and nine Balkan countries discussed ways to control the region’s borders and check the identities of people seeking refuge. Greek officials were furious they weren’t invited. The discussions seemed aimed at making it as difficult as possible for refugees having reached Greece to leave the country. Macedonia has started turning back refugees, and Austria is now imposing daily quotas on asylum claims. Add to that Slovenia’s decision to deploy army units on its border with Croatia, and a picture emerges where Greece is at risk of becoming something of an EU outpost where refugees would start accumulating, unable to travel onwards as has mostly been the case up until now. Alexis Tsipras described this as Greece becoming “a warehouse of souls”.
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