Wednesday 24 February 2016

Syria agrees to peace deal but doubts persist

DAMASCUS: Syria’s regime agreed on Tuesday to a cease-fire deal announced by the US and Russia, but there were widespread doubts it could take effect by the weekend as hoped.

The agreement, announced on Monday, does not apply to militant groups like the Daesh group and Al-Nusra Front, putting up major hurdles to how it can be implemented on Syria’s complex battlefield.
A Syrian Foreign Ministry statement said the government would continue to fight both those groups as well as other “terrorists,” while agreeing to stop other military operations “in accordance with the Russian-American announcement.”
The deal calls for a “cessation of hostilities” between forces loyal to Bashar Assad and opposition groups that would take effect overnight Friday-Saturday in Damascus.
The announcement came after the US and Russia agreed on a new cease-fire for Syria that will take effect Saturday, even as major questions over enforcement were left unresolved. “The Syrian government stresses the right of its armed forces to retaliate against any violation carried out by these groups,” the ministry’s statement said.
The Syrian announcement came after the main umbrella for Syrian opposition and rebel groups, the High Negotiations Committee, said late Monday that it “agrees to a temporary truce” as long as the main opposition’s demands are met.
The HNC said the “acceptance of the truce is conditional” to the Syrian government ending its siege of 18 rebel-held areas, releasing detainees and the cessation of aerial and artillery bombardment.


U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura halted the latest Syria talks in Geneva on Feb. 3, because of major differences between the two sides, exacerbated by increased aerial bombings and a large-scale government military offensive under the cover of Russian airstrikes.
It was not immediately clear if de Mistura will set a new date for the resumption of the talks that were scheduled to resume on Thursday. Last week, de Mistura was quoted by Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet as saying the Syria talks won’t resume in Geneva on Feb. 25 as he had previously hoped, adding that he cannot “realistically” get the parties in the Syrian conflict back to the table by then, “but we intend to do so soon.”
Syria’s state news agency SANA reported late Monday that a new humanitarian aid convoy made up of 44 trucks entered the besieged Damascus suburb of Moadamiyeh. The delivery was conducted under the supervision of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent and the United Nations, SANA said.
On Tuesday, state TV reported that aid entered another rebel-held suburb, Kfar Batna.
The latest distribution of aid came as Peter Maurer, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, began a five-day visit to Syria — his fourth since taking office in 2012.
“This is a critical situation at the present moment with millions of people in need and the objective of course of this trip is to scale up our operations and to bring as good as we can more help to Syrian people,” Maurer said in statement.
The truce will not cover IS, the Al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and any other militias designated as terrorist organizations by the UN Security Council. But where in Syria the fighting must stop and where counterterrorism operations can continue must still be addressed. And the five-page plan released by the US State Department leaves open how breaches of the cease-fire will be identified or punished.
The High Negotiations Committee (HNC) — the leading Syrian opposition group — gave its conditional acceptance to the deal late Monday.
But after several previous failed attempts, few had serious expectations for a lasting ceasefire.
Analysts said the deal may be simply unworkable, rebels on the ground doubted the regime’s goodwill and many civilians expected their hopes to once again be dashed.
“It’s a waste of time and it’s difficult to implement on the ground,” said Abu Ibrahim, a commander in the 10th Brigade opposition force in the northwestern Latakia province.
He expected “numerous rebel groups” to reject the agreement, which he said was formed “without consulting any factions on the ground.”
“The 10th Brigade will commit to the decision of the HNC, but we will respond directly to any shelling by the regime, which has yet to present any goodwill gesture,” he told AFP.
In Damascus, residents tired after nearly five years of war were also deeply sceptical.
“It’s a fragile deal,” said Rana, a 54-year old pharmacist in the capital.
“Ceasefires have been announced repeatedly in the past and we didn’t see any results on the ground because they were violated,” she said.
Despite being on opposing sides of the conflict, Moscow and Washington have been leading the latest diplomatic push to try to resolve a conflict that has left more than 260,000 dead and forced millions from their homes.
Both powers are pursuing separate air wars in Syria, with a US-led coalition targeting IS and occasionally other groups.
Russia says it is targeting “terrorists” in its strikes but has been accused of hitting non-militant groups in support of Assad, a longtime ally.
Analysts say that given the facts on the ground, in particular the complicated make-up of Syria’s opposition forces and frequently shifting frontlines, the cease-fire may be doomed to fail.
While Daesh control over territory is relatively clear and stable, its rival Al-Nusra Front, the local affiliate of Al-Qaeda, works closely with many other rebels groups.
“‘Cessation of Hostilities’ allows attacks on Nusra. That likely dooms it, since Russia/regime tend to hit others & call em Nusra (or IS),” Noah Bonsey, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said on Twitter.
“To have any chance of addressing this, US/Russia must delineate Nusra areas before implementation.”
In northern Syria especially, many non-militant rebel groups have operational ties with Al-Nusra.
Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Centre said the deal presented “a serious opportunity” but “there clearly are significant obstacles and risks”

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