The UK could join the aerial bombing campaign against Islamic State in Syria before Christmas, the chancellor, George Osborne, has indicated, as David Cameron prepares to bring a proposal to parliament this week.
The prime minister is likely to make a statement to MPs on Thursday, the day after Osborne’s spending review, and he will give them up to a week to digest his argument before deciding whether to call a Commons vote before the December recess.
There is speculation in Westminster that political opinion has shifted in favour of British involvement in Syria. The unanimous support in the UN security council for a resolution calling on member states to take all necessary means to eradicate Isis in the wake of the Paris assault is believed to have helped change the mood among MPs.
On Monday Cameron will travel to Paris to discuss the fight against Isis with the French president, François Hollande.
Osborne said MPs would not be given a vote until Cameron is sure will win, but there are already signs that previously sceptical Tories including Crispin Blunt, chair of the foreign affairs select committee, have switched sides.
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said on Sunday that the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was not planning to whip the vote on Syria, days after Corbyn indicated a free vote “was not something [the Labour leadership] are offering”.
The shadow cabinet is likely to discuss the whipping arrangements at its regular meeting on Tuesday. It is significant that two of Corbyn’s closest political allies –McDonnell and Diane Abbott – support a free vote.
McDonnell said on BBC1’s Andrew Marr show that he hoped the Commons could act as one and put aside party differences. He put the emphasis on regional forces on the ground, as opposed to airstrikes, saying the UK needed to learn from the mistakes of the past.
Corbyn and his allies remain adamantly opposed to war. There are concerns that if he does not allow a free vote, he may see mass resignations from the shadow cabinet.
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