International efforts to fight Islamic State, galvanised by the Paris attacks, are putting pressure on Arab states to do more, a year after they first joined Barack Obama’s coalition to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the jihadi group.
But rivalry with Iran, disagreements over Syria, sectarian hatred and domestic public opinion are all acting as a brake on deeper involvement. US-backed Kurdish forces, Iraqi Shia militias and the Lebanese Shia Hezbollah have all battled Isis, known as Daesh to Arabs. Finding Sunni Arab ground forces is proving difficult.
And growing signs that military action against Isis is now taking precedence over the future of Syria and hopes that Bashar al-Assad will be forced out mean that it may well be impossible, say analysts and commentators from the Middle East and abroad.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain are all still listed by US Central Command as taking part in airstrikes against Isis, which is politically important to Washington as a demonstration that there are Arab partners in a vicious regional war with global repercussions.
Early propaganda flaunted the combat roles of a Saudi prince and a female Emirati pilot. And the results were positive during the Isis siege of Kobani, when Arab sorties provided Syrian Kurdish fighters with badly needed air support
But for months now there have been few or no Arab attacks. The Saudi-led war inYemen launched in March – against Houthi rebels who the Saudis insist are backed by Iran – has diverted resources and underlined the priority being given to the Gulf’s unstable and impoverished backyard.
Operation Inherent Resolve, as the US-led anti-Isis campaign was clunkily named, has demonstrated how so many Middle Eastern problems are inherently unresolved, in the words of a recent study by the Rusi thinktank, and are hobbling collective efforts.
The fundamental issue is that Isis is an enemy of the enemies of many Arabs – Iran and Assad, whom Tehran has backed to the hilt since the Syrian crisis began in 2011. “So far the Saudis still fear Iran in the long term more than they fear Daesh,” says Sultan Sooud al-Qassemi, an Emirati writer.
Emile Hokayem, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, argues: “Everyone says they are against Isis, but it is no one’s top priority. It is not yet the organising principle of politics in this region.”
Officially, Arab partners insist nothing has changed. French raids on the Isis “capital” of Raqqa were launched from bases in Jordan and the UAE, though those countries’ own air forces were not involved. No one has forgotten the terrible fate of the Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh, burned alive in a cage by his gloating captors.
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