The Observer view on possible British military intervention in Libya

Even experts have difficulty understanding what is happening in Libya. Four years ago, it all seemed so simple. Inspired by the Arab spring, the Libyan people rose up against the hated dictator, Muammar Gaddafi. When he threatened to level Benghazi, Britain, France and the US intervened under a UN mandate by air and sea. The country’s armed forces capitulated, the despot was duly toppled (and murdered) – and Libya was free.

Since then, freedom has turned into a free for all. Rival factions, united in their hostility to the regime but divided geographically, ideologically, religiously and ethnically, attacked one another. Attempts to create democratic institutions stalled. Western governments’ efforts to underwrite a peaceful transition, never wholly convincing, foundered. In 2012, the killing of the American ambassador, Christopher Stevens, by a Salafist militia dramatised a rapid descent into chaos.

Libya now has two rival governments, one backed by the Libya Dawn Islamist alliance in the capital, Tripoli, the other an internationally recognised body in Tobruk. Large areas in the south and west are not controlled by any government. And then there is Islamic State, which has gained a sizable foothold centred on Sirte, on the Mediterranean coast. Complicating matters further, the UN last weekbrokered a compromise deal that ostensibly unites the rival authorities but may, in practice, exacerbate divisions, since leading figures in both camps flatly rejected it. Backed by the west, but also by Russia, which has developed a keen, post-Sinai interest in fighting jihadis, the UN deal is ambitious. It foresees a unified government, a single parliament and an international programme to reconstitute the army and police, build institutions and reboot a failing economy. And it will be claimed that it provides legitimacy to an anticipated request for military intervention by outside forces.

At this point, it might be wise to pause for breath – and think hard about what is really happening. Libya is moving back to the top of the western agenda not because its people are suffering, which they are, or because the Libyan nation is failing, which it is, but because of three largely extraneous concerns. One is the arrival of Isis on Libyan shores and the growing overlap with its activities in Syria and Iraq. Another is the emergence of Libya as a key people-smuggling route for migrants heading to Europe. The last is the importance attached by the west toLibya’s extensive oil reserves and future ownership of its sovereign wealth funds, once valued at more than $100bn.