Tuesday’s downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey
on the Syrian border was a nerve-jangling event. It raised the spectre
of a direct confrontation between two large powers: one a Nato member,
the other nuclear-armed. The already complex Syrian war suddenly
threatened to spill over into something even wider.
Turkey said the plane was shot down after repeated warnings that it had
violated its national airspace, which Russia denies. Russia’s Vladimir
Putin fired back that it was “a stab in the back carried out by the
accomplices of terrorists”.
Yet at the same time both sides have also been keen to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Mr Putin said the incident would be “analysed” – suggesting a cooler tone – and although Turkey convened a Nato meeting, it chose not to activate the alliance’s collective defence clause. The harsh rhetoric on both sides speaks to domestic audiences, but the strategic risks are also obvious.
Yet at the same time both sides have also been keen to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Mr Putin said the incident would be “analysed” – suggesting a cooler tone – and although Turkey convened a Nato meeting, it chose not to activate the alliance’s collective defence clause. The harsh rhetoric on both sides speaks to domestic audiences, but the strategic risks are also obvious.
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