Vladimir Putin’s visceral response to Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian plane, saying the country has been “stabbed in the back”,
makes it clear the incident will have serious repercussions, but
diplomatic observers say those consequences are unlikely to be military.
Putin and the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, both have carefully maintained images as strongmen. Erdoğan is under pressure to defend Turkmen communities in Syria from Russian airstrikes.
Meanwhile, Putin seemed to be addressing a domestic audience when he claimed the downed Russian plane had been targeting Russian-born terrorists, “to make sure these people do not return”.
In his remarks, however, the Russian president made no reference to any immediate military steps and said his government would now “analyse” the incident, leaving open the door to de-escalation later.
“Putin’s primary goal is to save face at home,” said Sam Greene, the director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London. “Expect the rhetorical bark to be much worse than the policy bite.”
Turkey has also been cautious in its response. It has called for an emergency session of Nato member state ambassadors in Brussels on Tuesday evening, but significantly this will be not under article four of the alliance’s founding treaty.
Meetings under that article are to debate a response to a threat to the territorial integrity or security of a member state, and can be a precursor to invoking article five, to trigger an allied military response.
Putin and the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, both have carefully maintained images as strongmen. Erdoğan is under pressure to defend Turkmen communities in Syria from Russian airstrikes.
Meanwhile, Putin seemed to be addressing a domestic audience when he claimed the downed Russian plane had been targeting Russian-born terrorists, “to make sure these people do not return”.
In his remarks, however, the Russian president made no reference to any immediate military steps and said his government would now “analyse” the incident, leaving open the door to de-escalation later.
“Putin’s primary goal is to save face at home,” said Sam Greene, the director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London. “Expect the rhetorical bark to be much worse than the policy bite.”
Turkey has also been cautious in its response. It has called for an emergency session of Nato member state ambassadors in Brussels on Tuesday evening, but significantly this will be not under article four of the alliance’s founding treaty.
Meetings under that article are to debate a response to a threat to the territorial integrity or security of a member state, and can be a precursor to invoking article five, to trigger an allied military response.
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