Russia’s military intervention in Syria is largely a war of choice marketed as a necessity to defeat the terror of Islamic State. It brings Russia back from the cold as an indispensable power.
Sending forces into combat allowed Moscow to muscle its way to the centre of global diplomacy on Syria, while turning the conversation away from Ukraine. Displays of new military prowess and power diplomacy have become the primary sources of popular legitimacy for the Russian leaders. Moscow launched airstrikes in Syria on 30 September with only 15% of Russians paying attention but a month of relentless TV coverage has focused people’s minds the way the Kremlin wanted. Public support for the operation has risen to 53%, 47% endorse the official objective of preventing Isis from attacking Russia, while 29% think Russia is protecting Assad’s regime from a US-sponsored revolution.
Yet a sense of apprehension is palpable: 22% of Russians disapprove of the intervention; 66% are against deploying ground forces; 17% do not understand what Russia is fighting for in Syria; 39% fear the war will result in Russian casualties; while 41% believe it would divert resources from Russia’s economy.
Russia’s public debate on Syria is heavily skewed to favour Assad’s regime, depicting it as the last defence against Isis. Putin’s plan, borrowing heavily from his Chechen template, centres on the need to split the anti-Assad opposition and co-opt those of its elements who would agree to hold the transition talks with Assad and stop fighting the regime, while turning their arms against Isis. It’s a cynically clever plan to create a new reality in Syria by turning its civil war into a counter-terrorist operation.
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