The Post-American Middle East What's Inside

After generations of authoritarian stagnation punctuated by moments of domestic repression and interstate war, in recent years, the Middle East has begun to move. The rise of radical Islamism, the invasion of Iraq and its chaotic aftermath, the uprisings of the Arab Spring and their bloody issue, and now a sustained drop in oil prices and successful negotiations with Iran—together these have opened up what could be an unsettling new era for all involved.
What are the contours of this new Middle East? Will Washington continue to pull back from actively managing the region, or will it develop an appetite for renewed intervention? And how will developments reshuffle alignments and allegiances? These are the questions this package tries to answer, delving deep into the current turmoil and its implications for U.S. policy.
To start, Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson argue that the U.S. shift to an “offshore balancing” approach, shunning ground operations and state building in the region, has been driven by a sensible recognition that Washington has dramatically reduced scope for successful intervention these days. But Daniel Byman says that counterterrorism from a distance is not enough and that renewed attempts at state building are necessary.