Background
Turkey heads to the polls on Sunday for a snap vote after elections in June proved inconclusive.
The AKP of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan failed to win an outright majority for the first time since taking power in 2002. And coalition talks with opposition parties didn’t work out.
Since the June election, Turkey has been beset by terror, with a bomb attack targeting a peace rally in Ankara earlier this month leaving more than 100 dead, and a suicide bomber in Suruç, a town near the Syrian border, killing at least 30 people in July.
The government is also once again at war with the outlawed Kurdish nationalist PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ party), which has put a break on peace talks that had been underway since 2012.
Although it has not played a central role in the campaign, there is also the refugee crisis. With some two million refugees in the country currently, Turkey has beennegotiating a deal with the EU in order to receive financial support to secure its borders and sustain the handling of its end of the crisis.
Other issues remain a slowing economy – over the past five years, economic growth has fallen from above 10% to 3% and GDP per capita has not grown since 2007 – as well as Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies and divisiveness, which are still at the forefront of voters’ minds.
How does the election work?
Turkey’s parliament, the grand national assembly, has 550 seats, 276 of which are needed for a majority. While 367 are needed to change the constitution directly, 330 seats are needed to call a referendum to put any changes to a popular vote. Although it is unlikely, Erdogan still hopes the AKP will win enough seats to amend the constitution and give the role of president more power.
Members of the grand national assembly are elected in 85 constituencies through proportional representation.
There is a 10% threshold to enter parliament, which is a substantially higher bar compared with other countries. Germany, for example, has a 5% threshold. Sweden’s is set at 4%, while Denmark has a 2% threshold to enter the Folketing.
What the Turkish system means is that if a party wins 40 seats but receives only 9.55% of the national vote, as the True Path party (DYP) did in the 2002 elections, it forfeits those 40 seats, which are then reallocated to the parties above the threshold. Simply put, it gives larger parties an obvious advantage.
The following interactive shows the difference that a 10% threshold would make on election results in different countries.
The main political parties
Justice and Development party (AKP)
Founded by politicians of various existing conservative parties in 2001, the Islamic conservative Justice and Development party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since it won in landslide elections in 2002. The former foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, became party leader and prime minister after Erdoğan was elected as president of Turkey in a popular vote last year. He also stands as the party’s top candidate on 1 November.
Republican People’s party (CHP)
Established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish republic, in 1923, the Republican People’s party (CHP) is the oldest party and represents the main opposition. The party leader and its top candidate is Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu.
The CHP’s election manifesto in June was centred on economic and labour issues: the party promises to introduce higher pensions, to tackle the current unemployment rate of 11.2%, and to improve employment among young people. It also promises to increase the minimum wage from 950 lira (£235) to 1,500 lira a month, whereas the working week is not to exceed 40 hours. The CHP supports the reform of the current constitution, introduced by the military junta after the 1980 military coup, but opposes the AKP’s plans of an executive presidency.
While the party has certainly changed under its current leader, many voters, especially Kurds and the religiously conservative, still distrust the CHP as a dogmatic and elitist party.
The far-right Nationalist Movement party (MHP), informally known as the Grey Wolves, will likely retain its place as the third largest group in the Turkish parliament. The party is led by Devlet Bahçeli.Nationalist Movement party (MHP)
While the MHP supports a certain degree of Kurdish and minority rights – the party promises in its manifesto that Cemeviler, Alevi houses of worship, will receive state support – they are against the peace process between the government and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), arguing that the Kurds need to accept the authority of the Turkish state. They promise to end all ongoing negotiations should they come to power.
Therefore the MHP draws its support mainly from a non-Kurdish base and is likely to generate MPs in all major Turkish cities.
People’s Democratic party (HDP)
Often described as Turkey’s answer to Greece’s Syriza and Spain’s Podemos, this democratic-socialist party stood for the first time as a party in June with promises to drive forward the Kurdish peace process and end ethnic, religious and gender discrimination. With a programme focused on minority rights, the rights of women and LGBTs, it was founded in 2012 and led by chairman Selahattin Demirtaş and chairwoman Figen Yüksekdag. Before winning 80 seats in June, the HDP’s MPs stood as independent candidates since Turkey’s election threshold of 10% only applies to political parties. It is the only political party in Turkey that has a 50% women quota. The HDP describes itself as an environmentalist and anti-capitalist party that opposes nuclear power and vows to improve workers’ rights.
What do the polls say?
How do I follow on election day?
Polls open at 8am and close at 5pm. Results are published throughout the evening as votes are counted.
The Guardian will be live blogging the election. You can follow Constanze Letsch, the paper’s Istanbul correspondent, and Kareem Shaheen, our Middle East reporter, on Twitter for updates throughout the day.
No comments:
Post a Comment