Saudi king's son drives reforms and war in a year of anxiety and change

On the hoardings that line the highways between Riyadh’s glittering towers, an elderly man looks down, half sternly, half benignly. To the right of King Salman bin Abdulaziz is his nephew, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef – middle-aged and bespectacled. To the monarch’s left sits his favourite son, Mohammed bin Salman , the youthful deputy crown prince. “We pledge to listen and to obey,” declares the Arabic slogan under the group portrait. All three men are wearing traditional ghoutra headdresses and flowing robes.

It is a humble and not entirely convincing message from the Saudi royal family as it marks the end of a turbulent year since King Salman came to the throne. Significant change has come to the kingdom, its neighbourhood and the wider Middle East. Collapsing oil prices, war in Yemen, the US tilt towards Iran, sectarian tensions and the rampaging jihadis of Islamic State have all left their mark. “Saudi Arabia is more assertive, less predictable, and probably more nervous than it was,” says a Riyadh-based diplomat. “We are seeing surprising moves.” Salman, now 80, will be the last of the sons of King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, the founder of the country that bears his family’s name, to use the title Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques – a reference to Mecca and Medina. The choice of Bin Nayef as crown prince last spring means that power will finally pass to the next generation. But in recent months it is Bin Salman – defence minister as well as economic supremo – who has been making headlines: leading the Yemen campaign and initiating reforms to cope with a budget deficit and the end of the oil age and, some suggest, the autocratic rentier state it sustained.

The 30-year old is as tall as his revered grandfather, but chubbier; when their images were morphed together they went viral on social media. He is attracting enthusiasm at home and attention abroad. Born in 1985, he is close to the median age in Saudi Arabia. “He actually knows what PlayStation is,” says a middle-aged admirer, with a laugh, and who, like many interviewed, does not wish to be named.

Efficiency, innovation and independence are the watchwords of a carefully managed public relations campaign that slips easily into sycophancy in Saudi media coverage. “People who are normally very critical are all singing the same song,” says a veteran foreign observer. Still, not everyone is convinced. “Yes, he is smart, but he has too much power and not enough experience, and that worries people,” says a female Saudi academic.