Kurds and Shias face off over Kirkuk in vacuum left by Iraqi army

In Tuz Khurmatu, on the edge of what Iraq’s Kurds call their new south-eastern border, at least a dozen flags fly. Most are the colours of Shia militias that have set up compounds in the town. There are also Islamic banners paying homage to the faith’s imams; green, red and yellow splashes on a dull winter sky. In the middle, above a fortified base, stands a battered Kurdish banner.

Behind blast walls that date to the US military presence almost five years ago, Kurdish military and security chiefs monitor the situation in the town. They believe they control it, and insist it was rightfully reclaimed from Baghdad in the chaos that followed Islamic State’s rampage through northern Iraq in June 2014.

To the Shia militias surrounding them, however, the matter is far from settled. Tuz Khurmatu, and the road north to Kirkuk, are still very much for the taking.

Last November, an attritional campaign to control the area led to 10 days of clashes, the most serious flare-up with the Kurds anywhere in Iraq in the 12 years since the fall of Baghdad. Tensions have remained high ever since along the 55-mile road to Kirkuk, a city that has been a holy grail for both sides throughout Iraq’s history. The battle for northern Iraq may centre on Isis for now, but the region’s fate could also rest on a brewing clash for a city that neither side will accept losing.

“If this is to be our final battle, then so be it,” said the Kurdish security chief, Lt Col Faruk Ahmed, inside the Tuz Khurmatu base. “We will fight to the end for Kirkuk. It is ours, and always will be.”