Advantage Iran in Lebanese political proxy battle with Saudi Arabia

Lebanon is on the verge of electing a close ally of Iran-backed Hezbollah as president, days after the nuclear deal between the west and Tehran which leaders vowed would herald a resurgent Iranian voice in the region.

The endorsement of Michel Aoun, a former general and foe-turned-ally of the Syrian regime, comes after a nearly two-year standoff that has paralysed decision-making in Beirut and despite Saudi Arabia wanting his arch-rival Samir Geagea to take the post.

Geagea has instead yielded to Aoun in a move that is now likely to anchor Iran’s influence in Lebanon.

Perennially unstable and dependent on patrons throughout its short history, Lebanon has become a major front in the ongoing Riyadh-Tehran feud, with both sides investing billions of dollars to support their respective candidates.

“I announce General Michel Aoun’s candidacy for the presidency of the republic,” Geagea said at a festive joint press conference. “I call on our allies to endorse Aoun’s candidacy.”

Aoun’s candidacy would need to be approved by a parliamentary majority, a result that appears within reach if Christian and Shia blocs can come together, along with MPs representing smaller sects.

The Saudi-backed “March 14” bloc, which accounts for most of the country’s Sunnis, and which is strongly supported by Riyadh, remained bitterly opposed to the deal until it was announced by both men on Monday night, and Geagea may face difficulties convincing them to back Aoun.

Aoun has enthusiastically supported Iran’s role in the region and his election would mark an extension of Tehran’s influence at a time when an ongoing tussle for power and influence saw Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in the lead-up to the nuclear deal.

This flare-up in tensions was precipitated by an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which had followed the execution of a senior Saudi Shia cleric. However, it underscores a much broader standoff that has festered particularly since the start of the Syrian civil war and the war in Yemen, both of which have sectarian dimensions.

Saudi Arabia has largely projected its power through Lebanon’s exiled former prime minister Saad Hariri. Late last year, he put forward a compromise candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, who is closely linked to the Syrian regime, in an attempt to break a deadlock which had crippled basic services and destabilised the country.